mattbell

I've been doing a lot of research into energy policy and climate change lately, and have discovered a lot of interesting things. Basically, the solutions to stop global warming and end energy dependence on middle eastern regimes are already present and affordable... we just have to use them.

There's a known solution to all these problems that's cost effective, stops global warming, and lets everyone keep driving their SUVs.

The details:

Here's how it goes: First, there is the problem of global warming. Global warming is caused by the increase in certain chemicals in the atmosphere, such as CO2. While there is some uncertainty as to whether global warming is truly occurring, it's worth trying to prevent it, as the consequences if it does happen are dire. Even if there's a 5% chance of global warming occurring in the next 50 years, it's still worth spending a few hundred billion dollars to stop it. As an analogy, if there's a 5% chance that terrorists will detonate a nuclear bomb in New York City, and spending money on counterterrorist measures would prevent it, it's worth spending billions to do so. (and we are) Thus, it's worth spending billions to stop global warming.

To stop this trend, we need to stop spewing so much CO2 into the atmosphere. CO2 is emitted mainly by cars and power plants. When you take oil out of the ground and burn it, the carbon in the oil is released as CO2. However, plants pull CO2 out of the atmosphere and turn it into more plant cells. If you grow a plant and then burn it, you essentially take CO2 out of the atmosphere and then put it back again, then you don't change the overall amoutn of CO2 in the atmosphere, and thus you don't contribute to global warming.

If we can create fuel from plants that will power our cars, then we won't be adding more CO2 to the atmosphere, and thus won't be contributing to global warming. As a side benefit, we won't be dependent on the middle east for oil anymore. Because the fuel is renewable and doesn't cause pollution, then it doesn't matter how fuel efficient the cars are. THus it doesn't matter if people want to keep driving SUVs instead of small cars.

So, It turns out that a third world country (!) has pulled this off. Half the fuel sold in Brazil is made from processed sugar cane. The sugar cane, grown in Brazil, is processed into ethanol, which is nearly as powerful as gasoline. By law, all cars sold in Brazil have to have engines that can run on ethanol. Depending on the prices, Brazilians can choose to run their cars on ethanol or gasoline. The cars sold in Brazil are made by familiar companies... Ford, GM etc. These companies could just as easily sell such cars in the US as well.

The US is experimenting with ethanol too, but we're doing so in a far less efficient way. We're trying to make ethanol from corn, but corn yields only a small amount of ethanol, and it uses a lot of energy to do so. It's really more of a pork barrel project for the corn lobby (one of the most powerful lobbies in Washington) that makes the Bush administration look like they're doing something about alternative energy. In fact, there's a 50 cent per gallon tariff on imported ethanol to make sure that the Brazilian sugarcane based ethanol can't undercut the expensive American corn-based ethanol. We're essentially shooting ourselves in the foot.

While sugar case won't grow in the US (except in Florida, Hawaii, and a few other places), sugar beets will, and they are also a good source of ethanol. However, there's no reason that the sugar cane would have to be grown in the US. We could get it from Mexico, Central America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and other equatorial countries. We could spend some money to get subsistence farmers in these areas modern equipment so that they can increase crop yields. The money that currently goes to Middle Eastern royalty as payment for oil could instead go to farmers around the world who would grow sugarcane for us.

So, to review... by switching to fuels based on sugar cane and sugar beets, we get:

- We stabilize the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, preventing the chance of catastrophic global warming
- We end our energy dependence on the middle east and the OPEC cartel
- We provide a valuable revenue source to poor farmers in equatorial regions around the world.
- We don't have to push hard on energy conservation. SUV drivers can keep driving their SUVs.

All it would take is some relatively moderate expenditures of money and some political willpower:
- Eliminate the tariff on imported ethanol
- Require all new cars to be capable of running on ethanol
- Develop programs to dramatically increase the acreage and crop yields of sugarcane and sugar beets around the world.
- Impose a modest tax on gasoline to reflect its true cost to the environment. (Think of the tax on gasoline as paying for an insurance policy that prevents the risk of global warming)

One big question in all of this is how many acres of land it will take to grow that much sugar cane. There are some studies on this, and it appears that there's plenty of room to grow in this area.

The facts, risks, and concerns about this approach are all still coming together, but I thought I'd share what I have found so far. I like learning about and discussing this kind of thing. If you're interested too, let me know.