Solving the gay marriage vote

[mattbell]

I know a lot of people are upset about the measure that passed in Maine denying gay marriage.

My first reaction is that this will all be moot in a few years because as soon as some old people die and some young people turn 18, gay marriage initiatives will easily pass.  I do have some data to support that -- unless people who support gay marriage stop supporting it as they get older (which seems unlikely), we're just a couple of years away from having gay marriage initiatives easily pass in more liberal states.

To me, the anti-gay crowd has already lost the culture war, and it's only a matter of time before they're outnumbered.  When I was a child, openly gay characters on TV and in movies were very rare, but now they are very common.

So it seems like the path of least resistance is to just wait a few years. 

However, I understand that this issue deeply hurts people now, and that they want to see the change happen faster.  This is totally understandable.  It seems like the key to making this change happen faster would be to understand what specifically causes people to flip from being anti-gay-marriage to being pro-gay marriage.  I'm curious if there's been any systematic large-scale study about what recent converts cite as their reason for converting. 

Some ideas of potential reasons:
- Family members or friends who have come out as gay
- Human-interest stories they see on TV or in newspapers about gay people who want to marry but cannot
- Political commercials
- Fictional gay characters in movies/TV/books

If the causes are known, it's easier to come up with a strategy.  There are of course issues with the accuracy of self-reporting but surely some data is better than no data. 

I do know funding has a big impact, so I'm curious if the various strategies that are used to impact funding are successful.   Are there any documented cases of companies stopping their political contributions to antigay measures after boycotts are put in place? 

That's me.  I like being data-driven and solutions-oriented.

Comments

[tenacious-snail.livejournal.com]

National Coming Out Day started after the March on Washington in 1988, because it was demonstrated that people who knew someone GLBT were way more likely to support various types of GLBT rights. So yes, coming out, particularly by someone that they love or respect, matters.

[veleda.livejournal.com]

agreed.

as i stated below. My sister was rapidly anti-gay in every way growing up. Thought it was a crime against god and every gay person was going to hell. She is otherwise a really sweet and wonderful person.

She was 'forced' to work with a gay coworker who was 'out' a few years ago. In that time, her transformation even letting her children come to events her coworker and his partner were at (something she wouldnt' let them do the first few years but now she does). She voted to support gay marriage in Prop 8 to my surprise. Her coworker has become a friend and she wants him to have a chance for happiness. He is in her terms a good guy who cares about the world.

Being out really makes a difference. Incidentally, same coworker has a current discrimination case out there for being discriminated against in previous employment. He is taking risks each time.. and its rough..but i believe he is fighting the good fight.

Watching my sister transform has been amazing.

[merovingian.livejournal.com]

I don't have the statistics in front of me, sadly, but what I've read is that there's one factor that does it: having a loved one come out as gay.

You get that, and in five years people switch their vote. You don't get that, and people don't switch.

[merovingian.livejournal.com]

Also interesting: there's a weird blip on the curve, where people 50-64 were more likely to vote no on 8 than people 40-49.

I'm just guessing here, but I'd say that the difference in the 50-64 crowd is that they've got LGBT kids, old enough that they came out a few years ago.

[easwaran.livejournal.com]

I had guessed that the difference was that the 50-64 crowd came of age in the '70s while the 40-49 crowd came of age in the '80s. There's a big difference between David Bowie/bisexual chic/Stonewall being your cultural touchstones and Ronald Reagan/AIDS/Wall Street.

[nasu-dengaku.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I was wondering about that. I like your theory.

[bennj.livejournal.com]

I know what doesn't do it. People from the Democratic Party using gay marriage as an excuse to accost me every Saturday morning when I walk to Noe Valley to get a bagel. No, I don't want to be on your list or give you money; nothing's changed since last week.

[xleste.livejournal.com]

Also really cultivating "allies" - which has its roots in going back to someone you know. Having straight people as champions as well is really important. :)

I really like your posts - overall, not just this one, and always enjoy reading them and the ways you think about/engage the world. :)

[nasu-dengaku.livejournal.com]

Thanks! Speaking of "engage", congratulations to you!

[veleda.livejournal.com]

My sister is a case. She thought all gays were going to hell and it was a crime against God eight years ago.

due to this:
- Family members or friends who have come out as gay

She had a coworker who was 'out' as a gay man. Over the course of three years her views around homesexuality altered radically and she voted to support gay marriage in Prop 8.

She still believes it is 'wrong' in the eyes of the lord.. but as she said.. her friend Jason is a totally great guy and his partner XXX is realy wonderful too and they love each other and they should have as much of any chance of being happy as we do.

It is the bravery of her coworker that converted my sister..though the same guy has faced discrimination due to being gay and out at work too. It's a tough path but ultimately i believe it makes a huge difference.

People like my sister at the time republican deeply Christian..etc are not going to be hanging out places where gay people hang out.. without exposure they believe what every stereotypes are in their heads.

Put a nice hardworking homosexual 'out' person in the work place where you are 'forced' to interact with them.. and things really do change.

[joedecker.livejournal.com]

Awesome post. Here's some more data to back up yours: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/gay-marriage-state-by-state-tipping.html

It is a matter of time. I think it may take longer than these numbers would indicate, though. First, widespread social acceptance is NOT sufficient to get a policy passed, 70% of Americans support a repeal of DADT, but we don't have that yet. Second, I think the opposition to LGBT rights has the potential to be better funded than it has been so far, I don't think we've seen the depths of the "big pockets" yet. But these objections only delay things a bit, they don't change your point.

I'm curious if there's been any systematic large-scale study about what recent converts cite as their reason for converting.

No, a coconspirator and I have been looking for such science, and as near as I can tell there isn't much information. There are hints, though. The two strongest predictive factors for support for SSM are atheism and "knowing someone who is LGBT." Can't do anything about the former (and wouldn't really want to), but the second can be addressed on a small scale by coming out of the closet. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/do-you-favor-same-sex-marriage-do-you.html It's something individuals can do, I don't know how to better enable it on a wide scale, though.

There is disturbingly little science on what I would call "effective activism", and I strongly support efforts to have more of that.

One particular angle I'm working is an education about why LGBT equality is an urgent issue, that is, an attempt to quantify and communicate rational estimates of the sorts of ongoing damage being done. It's still a work in progress, though.

Not data, anecdote

[joedecker.livejournal.com]

But this episode of Radiolab, and the story of the mayor of Silverton, OR, was thought-provoking: http://www.wnyc.org/shows/radiolab/episodes/2009/10/02#

[nasu-dengaku.livejournal.com]

Thanks for the interesting comments. I like the state-by-state graph.

So maybe the right thing to follow the chain of causality back a step and look at is what circumstances cause gay people to come out to their families and coworkers. There ought to be a ton of data on that. Then organizations can work to enable those circumstances.

I'm sure the National Coming Out Day people have done lots of thinking about this, whether quantitative/research-backed or not.

[serolynne.livejournal.com]

While I'm totally all for equal rights, and do think that not allowing people of the same gender to access legal marriage is wrong - I'd much rather see the concept of a default marriage contract *for everyone* be questioned.

I'm more in favor of alternative legal structures for people (any number, gender, etc) to consciously choose the legal entanglements and obligations they take on. Sure, leave the current marriage there as an option.. but other legal structures should also be recognized at the same level. I want a world where so much is not predicated on marriage status, such as insurability, inheritance, tax rates, hospital visitation, medical decisions, etc.

But I don't see that one going over very well either right now.

[nasu-dengaku.livejournal.com]

Cool... then I could finally fulfill my lifelong dream to marry a large corporation. :-)

[factitiouslj.livejournal.com]

Another side to it might be to look at reasons people have for switching from pro-gay-marriage to anti-gay-marriage, and trying to reduce reduce those.

That would probably be less effective, because people fortunately don't seem to switch in that direction nearly as much, but I'd be interested in hearing if anyone's looked into this.

[juverna.livejournal.com]

I like the way you think. Will follow with interest. :)

[geheimnisnacht.livejournal.com]

Another group of anti-SSM people might simply come from a lack of understanding of the issue: those willing to vote to support SSM laws if they just knew exactly what the points of contention were. The propaganda against SSM generally makes use of this, spreading a few lies about what will happen if the law passes. I recall one of the fears during Prop 8 was that "they're going to teach my kids to be gay in school".

With a smart way to get the truth out to more people, and have it accepted as truth, you'd probably be able to pass pro-SSM laws now in a handful of new states.

[martak.livejournal.com]

In general, I agree with the statistics. Also, like you, I am optimistic.

But of course, there is always a dangerous assumption that things will inevitably get better. Dark ages can, and do, happen, especially immediately after empires get toppled. The good fight is a never-ending battle, and we take so much for granted. Sure, information wants to be free, and sure, science is progressive and strong. But never underestimate the power of superstition to take hold of the minds of people, especially among those in charge.

Tolerance of homosexuality has oscillated in history. We're only on an "upswing" because science has advanced our thinking, and religious leaders have continued to make poor choices that alienate an already dwindling congregation (American Episcopalians, among others, excluded).

When the Invasion of the Monkey Men will next occur is anybody's guess. In the interim, I am happy to be a member of the Pink Army.

[nasu-dengaku.livejournal.com]

I wonder if people have sociologically studied the major periods of clampdown to understand the causes.

I know Egypt has significantly backslid on women's rights since the 1970s.

[integreillumine.livejournal.com]

http://contexts.org/socimages/2009/11/05/support-for-same-sex-marriage-by-age-and-state/